About
What is EOD 2037?
End Of Disease (EOD) 2037 is a goal: a median lifespan of 100 by 2037. This site asks what it would take to get there, and sketches one way it could happen.
Where the goal comes from
In Machines of Loving Grace ↗, Dario Amodei argues that AI could help defeat most diseases within 5–10 years of powerful AI arriving. EOD 2037 turns that argument into a number that can be checked against mortality data.
What is on this site
How to read the numbers
- Median lifespan is a period median: the age by which half of people would have died if one year's death rates applied across a whole life. It is not a forecast for any one person or birth year.
- Headline figures average the separately calculated medians for men and women.
- Acceleration multiplies the yearly rate at which death rates have been falling. It does not multiply years of life.
- Ages above 100 are not modeled, so results at the boundary are shown as at least 100.
- The scenario is hypothetical. Its milestones are assumptions, not announced plans or current clinical capabilities.
Mortality data come from the Human Mortality Database ↗. Other sources are cited next to the charts that use them.
Who is behind it
EOD 2037 is a research project by Gabriel Dolsten.